No, that picture is not lying. But yes, that picture is cheating, and it totally didn't count.Since I was heading out to Helensburgh to try and find a geocache, I stopped the clock there, with those magic numbers on it.
As you might have guessed, the wind was behind me. Strongly, all the way, and the ground was almost level - almost, though it was scary how quickly the average speed dived whenever I started climbing.
Positive points from this - I know how it feels to maintain my target average speed. Fast. For the vast majority of the distance, the minimum speed I wanted to be looking at on the speedo was 37. Whilst it wasn't a huge effort today, it was obvious how much of a challenge it would be on more challenging terrain, with changing wind.
Negative points from this - I now know how easy it would be for me to "game" my own targets. Whilst I'd never accept any speed that wasn't at least an out-and-back, if not a loop, it would be possible to find returns that are more sheltered than the outward ride. At that stage of desperation, though, I'd have to doubt my ability to hit the overall goal.
Heading back into the wind - having cut short my search due to ominous rumblings (and not just from my stomach) - as the torrential rain started, I watched my average speed plummet. By the time I got home, I was below 30, and whilst that was partly due to a lack of energy (my peak heart rate was a measly 166, and I only spent about half an hour above 150), it showed how much more the wind can take from you than it can ever give you. An average return speed of 25kph - that's just a bit embarrassing.
So why am I doing the hilliest stage of the tour into what is sure to be a persistent headwind?
Good question. First of all, because it's Wales - and have you seen the route? The whole thing's a cycling homecoming for me. Secondly, though, because I don't know whether I can do it.
I think I've proved today that over flat ground, with the right wind, completing a stage at 35kph is well within my grasp. About another month's training and I could just hold it there until August, safe in the knowledge that something would have to be terrifically wrong for me to not hit the target.
With the Welsh stage, I just don't know. There's no way I have enough time to train enough to be confident that I can do it on the day. Frankly, at the moment, I'm feeling like it's pretty unlikely I'll get to the necessary level. I'm not a climber - I've completely neglected my upper body for years now, but my arms still weigh about the same as a small horse - and, if I'm honest, I'm not a natural bike-rider. The speed increase I need seems beyond my reach, even if I can maintain a linear training progression - which is pretty much impossible. And I don't know if I have the discipline for it. My weight's still fluctuating, I'm not stretching as often or as well as I should, and I'm not preparing adequate food ready to eat post-ride.
There's a part of me, though - ever so small - saying "go on. You might surprise yourself"
Good trails!
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